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New York Jets 2010 Strength of Schedule, Futures Odds and Predictions
I would argue that no team changed more during last season than the New York Jets. They and rookie QB Mark Sanchez were the talk of the NFL early last season as New York started 3-0, beating all potential playoff teams (although only one – the Pats – made it). Then Sanchez hit the wall and New York went into a downward spiral, losing six of seven to seemingly put the playoffs out of reach.
But then something clicked again after Thanksgiving, as the Jets won five of six to sneak into the postseason. Did it help that Week 16 opponent Indianapolis and Week 17 foe Cincinnati didn't play all their starters because their playoff spots were set? Sure it did, but then the Jets proved they were no flukes by easily winning in Cincinnati, stunning the Chargers in San Diego and pushing the Colts in the AFC title game before falling, 30-17.
Sanchez was adequate in the regular season, throwing for 2,444 yards and 12 TDs to go with 20 picks for a rating of 63.0. He had the fewest attempts, completions and passing yards among quarterbacks who played at least 15 games in 2009. Sanchez was better in the playoffs, giving hope he will take a big step up in 2010.
But really the 2009 Jets were built on defense and the ground game – New York led the league in total defense and passing defense (thanks in large part to incomparable cornerback Darrelle Revis) as well as in rushing offense.
And New York hardly stood pat this offseason, dumping leading rusher Thomas Jones because of Shonn Greene's emergence, as well as trading versatile RB Leon Washington, who suffered a season-ending leg injury in Week 7 last year. New York brought in a litany of stars: LaDainian Tomlinson, Santonio Holmes, Jason Taylor and Antonio Cromartie. However, the team did release nine-time Pro Bowl offensive tackle Alan Faneca, and he was a big part of that O-Line being arguably the best in the NFL last season.
A lot of experts are making the NFL pick for the Jets to reach the Super Bowl – the Sporting News, for one. This team is already generating more ink than any other team in the NFL, led by outspoken coach Rex Ryan.
The NFL betting line lists the Jets' ‘over/under' for NFL season win totals at 9.5. Let's break down the 2010 New York Jets schedule:
Week 1: Monday, Sep. 13, Baltimore, 7:00 PM
Week 2: Sunday, Sep. 19, New England, 4:15 PM
Week 3: Sunday, Sep. 26, at Miami, 8:20 PM
Week 4: Sunday, Oct. 3, at Buffalo, 1:00 PM
Week 5: Monday, Oct. 11, Minnesota, 8:30 PM
Week 6: Sunday, Oct. 17, at Denver, 4:05 PM
Week 7: BYE
Week 8: Sunday, Oct. 31, Green Bay, 1:00 PM
Week 9: Sunday, Nov. 7, at Detroit, 1:00 PM
Week 10: Sunday, Nov. 14, at Cleveland, 1:00 PM
Week 11: Sunday, Nov. 21, Houston, 1:00 PM
Week 12: Thursday, Nov. 25, Cincinnati, 8:20 PM
Week 13: Monday, Dec. 6, at New England, 8:30 PM
Week 14: Sunday, Dec. 12, Miami, 4:15 PM
Week 15: Sunday, Dec. 19, at Pittsburgh, 4:15 PM
Week 16: Sunday, Dec. 26, at Chicago, 1:00 PM
Week 17: Sunday, Jan. 2, Buffalo, 1:00 PM
This is tied for the 16th toughest schedule in the NFL with an opponents' 2009 winning percentage of .500 (128-128).
One would expect New York to beat Buffalo, but the Bills gave the Jets some problems last year and managed to split. Think Brett Favre will be booed when he returns to face the Jets for the first time since playing with them that one year? Then New York has the difficult task of playing at Denver in the thin air on a short week. My football betting system calls it 3-3 at the bye.
If the Jets can beat the Packers at home following the bye they will be in good shape because in Weeks 9-11 they play teams that missed the playoffs in 2009 and were a combined 16-32. And on Thanksgiving night the Jets face a Bengals team they swept last year (although the Jets are 0-3 on Turkey Day all time). So a midseason surge seems very likely.
December is much tougher as each opponent is likely a playoff contender – 11 days off before a crucial date with the Pats is a benefit -- before closing with what should be a victory over a Bills team that will be far out of the playoffs and playing out the string. With the new rule that all Week 17 games have to be divisional games, the Jets couldn't have asked for a better foe while the Pats and Dolphins fight it out.
I'm not as big on the Jets as everyone else, but don't doubt they will be good. This looks like 10-6, so take the ‘over'. I predicted the Pats to also finish 10-6, so it could come down to tiebreakers to win the AFC East (Pats are +105 on WagerWeb and Jets at +110). I do think the Jets will miss Thomas Jones and that the passing game will still struggle and, thus, New York won't make it back to the AFC title game -- but will get within a game of it.
About the Author
Doc Moseman is one of the pioneers of college football and the NFL handicapping industry. Check out his Web site for up-to -the-minute NFL Odds and his famous winning college football and NFL picks.
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